At the family level, food supplies drop precipitously when the first adult develops full-blown AIDS. This deprives the family not only of this worker in the fields, but also of the work time of the adult caring for the AIDS victim. A survey in Tanzania found that a woman whose husband was sick with AIDS spent 60 percent less time tending the crops. Food production declines from the epidemic have been reported in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, and Zimbabwe.

In pastoral economies, such as Namibia, the loss of the male head of household is often followed by the loss of cattle, the family’s livelihood. Sub-Saharan Africa, a region of 600 million people, is moving into uncharted territory. There are historical precedents for epidemics on this scale, such as the smallpox epidemic that decimated New World Indian populations in the 16th century or the bubonic plague in Europe in the 14th century, but there is no precedent for such a concentrated loss of adults.

The good news is that some countries are halting the spread of the virus. The key is strong leadership from the top. In Uganda, where the epidemic first took root, the active personal leadership of President Yoweri Museveni over the last dozen years has succeeded in reducing the share of adults infected with the virus from a peak of 14 percent to 8 percent. In effect, the number of new infections has dropped well below the number of deaths from AIDS. Senegal, alone in Africa, responded early to the threat from the virus. As a result, it prevented the epidemic from gaining momentum and held the infection rate to 2 percent of its adults, a number only slightly higher than that of the industrial countries.

Saving Africa depends on a Marshall Plan-scale effort on two fronts: one to curb the spread of the virus and the other to restore economic progress. Winning the former depends directly on Africa’s national political leaders. Unless they personally lead, the effort will fail. Once the leader outlines the behavioral changes needed to contain the virus—such as young people delaying first intercourse, reducing the number of sexual partners, and using condoms—then others can contribute. This includes the medical establishment within the country, NGOs working in this area, and international health and family planning agencies.

To compensate for the “missing generation,” countries will need assistance across the board in education. This is an area where the U.S. Peace Corps and its equivalents in Europe can play a central role, particularly in supplying the teachers needed to keep schools open. Social workers are needed to work with orphans. A program of financial assistance is necessary for the extended families trying to absorb the million of orphans projected by 2010. Given the high cost of doing business in an AIDS-ridden society, special incentives in the form of tax relief are needed to attract corporate investors, incentives that could be underwritten by international development agencies.

And it goes without saying, debt relief is essential to the rebuilding of Africa. It is not possible to outline a detailed rescue effort here. The bottom line is that there is no precedent in international development for the challenge the world now faces in Africa. The question is not whether we can respond to this challenge. We can. We have the resources to do so. If we fail to respond to Africa’s pain, we will forfeit the right to call ourselves a civilized society.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:

Reah Janise Kauffman
Special Assistant to the Chairman & Director of International Publications
Worldwatch Institute
1776 Massachusetts Ave.,
NW Washington, DC 20036
Telephone: 202 452-1992

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